Frequently

Asked 

Questions 

Answered 

by Ivan Beljan

What do you trade?

Stocks and ETFs in the main trading model.

You can also use options as will I but it is not necessary to follow the model.

SPX model can be tracked by futures, options or ETFs.

 

About day-trading

I don’t day-trade. 3 basic reasons:
a) intra-day price movement is more random compared to larger time-frame (swing & position),
b) day trading misses out on the overnight gains which are huge long term,
c) it is very time consuming and easily burns you out.

Day trading provides the illusion of activity.

But in trading, unlike most other professions, money is made by doing less.

 

About buy & hold

Buying for the very long term makes sense at the beginning of a bull market but you still want to sell before the next bear starts. If you don’t the draw-down will make you panic and you’ll abandon your buy & hold right at the bottom. Or sell after the 1st relief rally. It is why vast majority of investors lag the market. Complete lack of risk management.

And what does the “hold” part even mean? Holding till you need the money? Crazy. Sell when you can make a good sell, not when you must sell. 

 

What do you focus on?

Price action primarily, but always within context.

Context includes sentiment as an indispensable indicator, valuation, news reactions, significant events, volatility, market-breadth, inter-market relationships…

 

The value for subscribers

You get me on your side.  I managed several funds years ago and have been trading very successfully my own money full time since 2009 (with occasional institutional projects).

The value comes in 2 parts: the analytical and the psychological.

On the analytical side you benefit from my experience, work and unique insight. It might fit you perfectly, it might not, but you will derive value out of it and your trading will improve.

We trade only 7 specific setups and only when the broader conditions are right. It takes patience and confidence which brings us to: the psychological value.

It comes in the form of a trading strategy which is a defined process that will save you from human destructive biases. It will make your own process better.

The end result will be seen on your bottom line and I am sure it will be many times bigger than the cost.

Capital needed to start

Small accounts have the problem of subscription costs eating into profits and capital.

I do not encourage accounts under $10,000 to subscribe for longer periods. The best option for those is probably a few months subscription used as a learning tool.

Larger accounts will benefit strongly as the added value will be much higher than subscription cost.

Expected returns

Internet is full of scams promising easy riches. Anybody claiming steady 100% returns annually would very soon become the richest person in the world. Math says those guys are lying. If that is what you are looking for this is the wrong website.

Yes 100% returns are possible, but those are exceptions.

If on the other hand you believe in growing your capital over time we can find mutual benefit.

For example: 25% annual returns will make your account 87 times bigger over 20 years.

25% makes your account 1,000 times bigger over 31 years, which is still within reach for many.

You read it right: 1,000 times bigger. From $100 thousand to $100 million.

Compound growth blows minds.

 

Free trials

Free trials attracted a lot of free loaders and added to the administration time (responding to e-mails, processing accounts, etc..).

I’m confident about the value of the product and most months model returns are at least 10+ times bigger than the subscription cost.

 

 

 

Time frame

Several days to several weeks…

With that said, I will always adapt to market conditions.

In a choppy market average holding time will drop.

In a trending market it can hopefully go for months.

 

Why the name “Bell Time”?

I do most of the work in the off-hours

I will usually only watch the market and place orders around the opening and the closing bell. Hence Bell Time.

Too much screen time is counter-productive, combine it with the lack of planning and it is a complete disaster.

Membership Area

Membership area, besides the guidelines page has 3 pages updates daily:

  1. SPX MODEL page
  2. STOCK / ETF Model Portfolio page with stops and targets
  3. TRACK RECORD PAGE

You will also get an e-mail around 3:30 with any updates and end-of-day trades.

Positions are entered either end-of-day (vast majority) or rarely via buy order placed pre-open.

You are not required nor advised to watch the market all day. Around the opening bell and just before the closing bell is more than enough.

Payment & Canceling

All payment are processed by PayPal to eliminate any risk for the subscriber.

You can at any moment cancel your subscription for the upcoming period.

SPX Model

SPX Model is based on:

trend on multiple time-frames (measured with slope and direction of moving averages),

momentum strength on multiple time-frames (measured with RSI),

price patterns,

non-price indicators that have some predictive power: sentiment, VIX, NYSI, breadth, inter-market signals, 3 economic indicators.

Model trade levels (exact SPX price) are given pre-market open and end-of-day if necessary.

Stock / ETF Trading Model

Stock / ETF Trading Model is (as of May 2016) run independently from the SPX model for easier following.

It will consist of both long (more) and short (less) setups with max 10 positions open at any point in time.

The model trades all in / all out for easier following. Scaling can be used at discretion to enhance performance.

7 Setups

Over time and thousands of trades made I started to get an intuitive feel where good reward/risk odds were.

Setups are now well defined with strict rules:

  1. Strict Dip
  2. Shakeout Pullback
  3. Exhaustion
  4. The N Setup
  5. Breakout
  6. Grinder Pause
  7. Front-Run

First 6 setups are traded end-of-day, the Front-Run setup is traded with buy-stop orders placed at 10AM.

Detailed descriptions in the Membership Area.