Longer-term market analysis every Wednesday

Favorite indicators pointing in opposite directions

By |May 11th, 2016|

On the SPX Chartbook page I keep and update daily a dozen charts that I find helpful for gauging broad market.

Among my few favorite indicators are Put/Call 5 day average and VIX/VXV which are now flashing completely different signals.
Total Put/Call ratio – Bullish
Obtained from CBOE and as the name says, shows total number of put options divided by […]

New Bull Market For Gold Miners

By |April 20th, 2016|

At the moment I am writing this GDX ( gold miners ) ETF is trading at $23.74.

That is 91.45% up from the low made on January 19th this year.

Long Term View

90% up in 3 months. Amazing move.

But pales in comparison to the bear market that preceded it.

Gold miners ETF went down from $64.51 to $12.40 […]

Mean reversion is behind 5 best stocks this year

By |April 6th, 2016|

As of April 5th top 5 best performing S&P500 stocks YTD are:

Newmont Mining ( NEM ) +51.89%
Urban Outfitters ( URBN ) +41.14%
Michael Kors ( KORS ) +39.54%
Freeport McMoRan ( FCX ) +37.96%
Wynn Resorts ( WYNN ) +32.25%

2 mining, 2 apparel, 1 casino stock.

What do ( did ) they have […]

SPX Price Analysis

By |March 30th, 2016|

As shown above

Market Is Range Bound
and S&P500 is currently entering the sell zone.

 Extended Short Term Up Move within Longer Term Sideways Market

Long Term Trend Still Rolling Over
Measured as the slope of the 200 day simple moving average ( green line ).

But Up Channel Is Still Intact

Lower Highs
Market is making a series of slightly lower highs since […]

Big Picture: Bull & Bear Case

By |March 16th, 2016|

Bear case first:
As seen on the above chart the 200day simple moving average of S&P500 changed it’s direction for only the 7th time in last 20 years.

That trend is now down. 5 out of 6 previous changes in direction lasted for years. The only head fake occurred in 2011.

Here is another interesting chart favoring the […]

Longer-term market analysis every Wednesday