Real Time Actionable Analysis

Useful Market Indicators

By |February 17th, 2017|

Here’s a brief update on the charts I use to gauge overall market conditions.

SPX

Breadth

McClellan Summation

Intermarket relationship – High Yield Bonds

Yield Curve – Particularly useful for banks

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

And my 2 favorites: Put/Call

And Volatility Structure

Trade well,

 

Ivan

Amazon (AMZN) Channels

By |May 18th, 2016|

Amazon stock price was below $300 at the start of last year. It is currently at $700. The stock rallied more than 50% from the low made in February this year.

As old brick-mortar retailers are sold off it seems market perception is they have no chance against the online giant.

Current Amazon market cap is […]

FCX inverse H&S?

By |May 11th, 2016|

No pattern yet but something to keep an eye on. Let’s start with the big picture.

Weekly Chart

2 key takeaways from the 10-year weekly chart (logarithmic scale):

The stock is prone to fast moves, check the velocity of the downtrend in 2008 and 2014-2015 and the uptrend in 2009 and 2016;
The stock has a […]

AAPL COVER SIGNAL

By |April 28th, 2016|

Apple missed on earnings and dropped 6.26% yesterday to close at $97.82.

It was (and still is) a universally loved stock. Last 2 analyst rating before the earnings report had put a price target of $150. Almost everyone had a buy rating on it.

And yet it is down 24% over 12 months.

Analysts have now all […]

Short Term Top

By |March 18th, 2016|

I sold a lot of covered calls today.

No, it is not due to summer 2015 pattern signaling a top today, altough the analog is fascinating 

More importantly: complacency has kicked in.

Sentiment had shifted too much too fast.

I’ll illustrate it with volatilty term structure.

30day implied volatility/3 month implied volatility. Now below 0.8.

Other occasions in last 2 […]

Real Time Actionable Analysis