Here’s what I wrote in a newsletter yesterday: “Market is pricing in UK will stay in EU which produces a tail risk of polls being wrong. Also a risk of buy rumor-sell news scenario where market might sell off after news comes out. I will look to reduce long exposure today. Will update during the day.

Did I reduce? No. I did not stick with the plan.

Betting odds were in favor of the “remain”, market were rallying,  so my though process was ok the “remain” will probably win, markets will open higher tomorrow and I will sell on strength in anticipation of the “sell the news” scenario.

I got the big gap down instead. Greed got punished immediately.

Btw I am not selling down here, have a lot of cash and will actually look to add on over-reaction.