About Ivan

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So far Ivan has created 25 entries.

Tesla: 3 lessons in 1 chart

By |March 21st, 2016|

Lesson 1: Tesla is flat Year-to-date. It will likely end quarter that way or very near too. And take a look at the swings within  – huge moves! It shows how misleading stats can be. 

Lesson 2: Markets are crazy and once the stock gets in motion it does not stop easily. I use 10EMA (grey […]

Short Term Top

By |March 18th, 2016|

I sold a lot of covered calls today.

No, it is not due to summer 2015 pattern signaling a top today, altough the analog is fascinating 

More importantly: complacency has kicked in.

Sentiment had shifted too much too fast.

I’ll illustrate it with volatilty term structure.

30day implied volatility/3 month implied volatility. Now below 0.8.

Other occasions in last 2 […]

Basic Problem with Leveraged ETFs

By |March 18th, 2016|

Leveraged ETFs have become the favorite retail trader’s instrument and many are not aware of the hidden cost.

I’m talking here about equity ETFs such as UPRO, SPXL, SSO, SPXU, SPXS, SDS for S&P500, TNA and TZA for Russell 2000, TQQQ and SQQQ for Nasdaq 100 and so on.

ETPs tracking commodities are a bit different […]

Big Picture: Bull & Bear Case

By |March 16th, 2016|

Bear case first:
As seen on the above chart the 200day simple moving average of S&P500 changed it’s direction for only the 7th time in last 20 years.

That trend is now down. 5 out of 6 previous changes in direction lasted for years. The only head fake occurred in 2011.

Here is another interesting chart favoring the […]

1st post: Why blog?

By |March 15th, 2016|

Does anyone need another trading blog? 

I don’t know.

But I’m at the point where I feel I need to write one.

Why?

 

1. I’ve been a full time investor/trader for 10 years now. It’s been a wild journey,  went from managing pure fundamental long-only funds to mostly technical swing trading. Over the time a lot of bloggers* […]